- With just the Qatar and Abu Dhabi Grand Prix left, the world is now crunching the numbers for how Lando Norris, Oscar Piastri, or Max Verstappen can claim the 2025 Formula 1 driversโ championship.
- The three-man race recently became considerably closer after both McLaren drivers were disqualified for excessive skid-block wear at the Las Vegas Grand Prix.
- While Norris still maintains a healthy buffer, Verstappen has scored 179 points across the eight races since 2025โs mid-season break to the championship leaderโs 115 and Piastriโs 82.
After the dramatic eleventh-hour double disqualification of McLaren Racingโs Lando Norris (current Formula 1 leaderboard topper) and Oscar Piastri at the 2025 Las Vegas Grand Prix, one cannot help but feel as though the motorsport gods are smiling upon four-time world champion Max Verstappen.
Initially, Norris had extended his lead to 42 points over Red Bull Racingโs Verstappen and 30 points over teammate Piastri โ but thanks to โexcessive skid-block wearโ on both papaya-coloured race rigs, only 24 points separate the British racing talent from his rivals. So how exactly can each pilot secure a season-wide victory for 2025?
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- Lando Norris โ 390 points (seven race wins)
- Oscar Piastri โ 366 points (seven race wins)
- Max Verstappen โ 366 points (six race wins)
Scenario A: Max Verstappenโs Fifth Title
Even if Max Verstappen were to score the maximum 58 points available to him across the remaining two grands prix to tally a season total of 424, mathematically speaking, he doesnโt automatically take home championship #5.
Lando Norris โ who currently tops the leaderboard at 390 โ would need to score no more than 33 points from the Qatar sprint race and actual grand prix at Losail Circuit, and the season closer in Abu Dhabiโs Yas Marina Circuit.
Meaning P2 finishes in the first two events (seven points for the sprint + 18 points for race day), and no higher than P6 (eight points) in Abu Dhabi; winning the sprint (eight points) and one of the race days (25 points) but then DNF-ing or another DQ; winning the sprint (eight points) followed by two non-podium race finishes; P2 (18 points) and P3 (15 points) but a DNF/DQ for the sprint; or any possible combination that doesnโt exceed 33 points.
But again, this is assuming perfect back-to-back results for Super Max. If he were to fall short of P1 in any of the above, Lando Norris would obviously need even fewer points to assure his maiden title.
In the extremely unlikely event that Norris fails to step up onto the podium for any of these three race events, Verstappen will also be champion. Similarly, if Verstappen prevails in the remaining two grands prix and ties on points with Norris, the Dutchman would emerge as a five-time world champion due to more race wins this ongoing season (eight vs seven).
Whatever the case, what a comeback itโs been since the mid-season break. And not to jinx it, but looking at the points trajectoryโฆ momentum does appear to be on the resurgent Max Verstappenโs side.
Scenario B: Oscar Piastriโs Maiden Title
Given Oscar Piastri is level on points with Verstappen, his pathway to becoming the first Australian Formula 1 champion since Williams Racingโs Alan Jones circa 1980 will be mathematically identical to Verstappenโs. Where they differ, however, is the far less precise matter of team politics and the enforcement of the historically inconsistent โpapaya rules.โ
Hopefully, he wonโt have to relive the same hardships as his mentor and manager, Mark Webber.
Scenario C: Lando Norrisโ Maiden Title
Lando Norris will only have to finish with 25 points or more than his teammate and Verstappen during this coming weekendโs Qatar Grand Prix to claim the 2025 Driversโ championship without resorting to an Abu Dhabi decider โ that is, to outscore each rival by two points (we wonโt outline every conceivable scenario, for they are myriad).
Winning on race day essentially guarantees victory after his rollercoaster campaign, and would make him the first McLaren Racing driver crown since Sir Lewis Hamilton circa 2008. But if he fails to do so, heโll obviously have some relatively hard yards ahead of him during the season finale with a ruthless Verstappen backed into a corner a la 2021 (ibid.).
As mentioned earlier, in the event Verstappen finishes P1 during the remaining two grands prix and they tie on points, the Dutchman would emerge as a five-time world champion, given he will have notched more race wins than Norris this season.
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