- With just the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix left, the world is now crunching the numbers for how Lando Norris, Max Verstappen, or Oscar Piastri can claim the 2025 Formula 1 drivers’ championship.
- The three-man battle became considerably closer after both McLaren drivers were disqualified for excessive skid-block wear at the Las Vegas Grand Prix.
- While Norris maintained a buffer ahead of the Qatar Grand Prix, Verstappen managed to further reduce the gap between himself and his British rival this weekend (down to just 12 points).
Between the eleventh-hour double disqualification of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri at the Las Vegas Grand Prix, and the safety car/McLaren Racing pitting dramas they both endured at the recent Qatar Grand Prix… one cannot help but feel as though the motorsport gods are smiling favourably upon four-time world champion Max Verstappen.
At one stage in the ongoing season, the Dutch motorsport talent was staring down the barrel of a 100-plus points deficit. Thanks to “excessive skid-block wear” on both papaya race rigs at Vegas, however, followed by decisive strategy calls from Red Bull Racing at Losail Circuit while the McLarens lagged behind, only 12 points now separate him and Norris. So how can each pilot secure the W for 2025?
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- Lando Norris – 408 points (seven race wins)
- Oscar Piastri – 396 points (seven race wins)
- Max Verstappen – 392 points (seven race wins)
Scenario A: Max Verstappen’s Fifth Title
Even if Max Verstappen were to win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, mathematically speaking, it doesn’t automatically guarantee championship #5. The following conditions would also need to be in play:
- Verstappen wins + Norris finishes P4 or lower
- If Verstappen doesn’t win, he’ll need to finish P2 + Piastri doesn’t win + Norris finishes P8 or lower
- If Verstappen doesn’t win, he’ll need to finish P3 + Piastri doesn’t win + Norris finishes P9 or lower
Scenario B: Oscar Piastri’s Maiden Title
Before the Qatar Grand Prix, Oscar Piastri was level on points with Verstappen, and his pathway seemed near-identical. But that’s obviously since changed. Currently, he lags four whole points behind the Dutch motorsport phenom and 16 points behind his teammate.
Here’s what needs to happen at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix for Piastri to become the first Aussie Formula 1 champion since Williams Racing’s Alan Jones circa 1980:
- Piastri wins + Norris finishes P6 or lower
- If Piastri doesn’t win, he’ll need to finish P2 + Verstappen finishes P4 or lower + Norris finishes P10 or lower
There’s also the far less precise matter of team politics and McLaren leadership Zak Brown/Andrea Stella’s historically inconsistent enforcement of “papaya rules.” Hopefully, OP won’t have to relive the same hardships as his mentor and manager Mark Webber did at Red Bull Racing with eventual four-time champ Seb Vettel.
Scenario C: Lando Norris’ Maiden Title (The Most Likely Outcome)
Yes, Lando Norris squandered his chance to seize the title without a nail-biting Abu Dhabi decider at this weekend’s Qatar Grand Prix. Though the objective remains the same – if he can win the season finale, he’ll win the 2025 F1 Drivers’ Title.
Outside of clinching it with a straightforward P1 result, here are the Brit’s other avenues to victory after a rollercoaster campaign:
- Norris finishes P2
- Norris finishes P3
- Norris finishes P4 + Verstappen doesn’t win
- Norris finishes P5 + Verstappen doesn’t win
- Norris finishes P6 + Verstappen doesn’t win + Piastri doesn’t win
- Norris finishes P7 + Verstappen doesn’t win + Piastri doesn’t win
- Norris finishes P8 + Verstappen finishes P3 or lower + Piastri doesn’t win
- Norris finishes P9 + Verstappen finishes P4 or lower + Piastri doesn’t win
- Norris finishes P10 + Verstappen finishes P4 or lower + Piastri finishes P3 or lower
- Norris doesn’t score + Verstappen finishes P4 or lower + Piastri finishes P3 or lower
Should he pull it off, Norris would become the first McLaren Racing driver to claim the crown since Sir Lewis Hamilton circa 2008.
When is the 2025 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? (Australia Start Time)
Track: Yas Marina Circuit
As per usual, you’ll be able to livestream the action via the likes of Kayo, Fox Sport, and so forth when the time comes. Lights out and away we go will vary slightly depending on where you’re based in the country:
- NSW/VIC/ACT/TAS: Monday, December 8th at 12 AM (AEDT)
- South Australia: Sunday, December 7th at 11:30 PM (ACDT)
- Queensland: Sunday, December 7th at 11 PM (AEST)
- Northern Territory: Sunday, December 7th at 10:30 PM (ACST)
- Western Australia: Sunday, December 7th at 10 PM (AWST)
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