Welcome to Octagon Oracle. Each week, weโll set aside some time to break down the other sweet science in anticipation of the upcoming UFC event. This edition covers UFC 282 predictions, betting odds, and just a dash of armchair analysis (main card). Enjoy the hostilities and gamble responsibly.
Since the initial announcement of UFC 282, two main card bouts have been scrapped. Although youโd be sorely mistaken in thinking the last pay-per-view of 2022 has been โguttedโ in any sense. Because what weโre in for is still bloody exciting on all counts.
As a quick refresher, due to a โsevereโ shoulder injury โ the worst in UFC history, according to promotion president Dana White โ Jiri Prochazka graciously vacated the light heavyweight title, allowing the division to progress in his absence during the recovery process (and living up to his bushido principles).
RELATED: Jiri Prochazka, Modern-Day Samurai, Vacates UFC Light Heavyweight Title Due To Injury
Prochazkaโs scheduled opponent, Glover Teixeira, was apparently offered the chance to reclaim his strap with a substitute opponent. Although said opponent may have spooked him.
โWe offered Glover the fight [against Ankalaev]. For some reason, he didnโt want the fight, so we had to move on,โ revealed Dana White.
Instead, deciding who will sit on the UFCโs light heavyweight throne now comes down to the co-main bout: former champion Jan Blachowicz vs the up-and-coming Magomed Ankalaev.
Dana White added: โIf we couldnโt have the rematch, getting Ankalaev, who has the second-longest winning streak in light heavyweight history, and Blachowicz, who is the former champion, is really fortunate.โ
โIt all fell into place for us as it often seems to do. But thatโs a great fight, too, and now itโs for the full title.โ
RELATED: Paddy Pimblett Accepts Jake Paulโs $1 Million Boxing Challenge
Then thereโs the matter of UFC veteran Robbie Lawler, who has been forced to withdraw from his own bout again Santiago Ponzinibbio just yesterday (also due to injury, although the nature of it is currently undisclosed).
At this stage, the promotion is searching for Ruthlessโ short-notice replacement, but for the time being, until a confirmed name has been announced, weโre operating under the assumption itโs off.
UPDATE [7/12/2022]: Santiago Ponzinibbio (29-6) is now fighting Alex Morono (22-7-1) in a 180-pound catchweight bout. Our betโs on Alex Morono.
Here are our predictions for UFC 282: Jan Blachowicz vs Magomed Ankalaev.
UFC 282 Predictions (Main Card)
Jan Blachowicz vs Magomed Ankalaev (Odds & Prediction)
- Division: Light Heavyweight
- Records: Jan Blachowicz (29-9 MMA, 12-6 UFC) | Magomed Ankalaev (18-1 MMA, 9-1 UFC)
- Recent Performance: Jan Blachowicz (4-1) | Magomed Ankalaev (5-0)
- Rankings: Jan Blachowicz โ #2| Magomed Ankalaev โ #3
- Boss Bet Odds: Jan Blachowicz โ $3.05 | Magomed Ankalaev โ $1.39
Armchair Analysis
Not to discount the accomplishments of the former champ in Jan Blachowicz โ and especially not in a division where the other former champ, Glover Teixeira, has demonstrated you can win the belt in your 40s โ but it seems as though now is the time for fresh blood; now is the time for yet another dominant Dagestani grappler like Magomed Ankalaev to ascend.
Donโt be fooled by the โgrapplerโ label, either. Like his countrymen Islam Makhachev and the inimitable Khabib Nurmaomedov before him, Ankalaev is swiftly evolving to become more and more well-rounded with every appearance in the Octagon, as per the name of the game (mixed martial arts). Them mountain boys just be built different.
Thereโs every chance Jan Bachowicz proves us wrong with a renewed sense of motivation and a full tank of Polish Powerโข. But our betโs on Magomed Ankalaev.
Paddy Pimblett vs Jared Gordon (Odds & Prediction)
- Division: Lightweight
- Records: Paddy Pimblett (19-3 MMA, 3-0 UFC) | Jared Gordon (19-5 MMA, 7-4 UFC)
- Recent Performance: Paddy Pimblett (5-0) | Jared Gordon (4-1)
- Rankings: Paddy Pimblett โ Unranked | Jared Gordon โ Unranked
- Boss Bet Odds: Paddy Pimblett โ $1.41 | Jared Gordon โ $2.95
Armchair Analysis
Similar to last weekโs face-off between Stephen โWonderboyโ Thompson and Kevin โBig Mouthโ Holland, this is a bout where weโd hate to see either party lose. Especially when you hear about the equal parts inspiring and heartbreaking journey that Jared Gordon has endured (quick summary from the man himself here; get the tissues ready).
Unfortunately for Gordon, from what weโve seen, Paddy Pimblettโs thesis about UFC 282 is right on the money: the Liverpool native simply outclasses the Florida-based scrapper everywhere it counts โ grappling, striking, durability, and sheer athleticism.
Itโs a rare instance where we donโt feel particularly good about it, but our betโs on Paddy Pimblett.
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Darren Till vs Dricus du Plessis (Odds & Prediction)
- Division: Middleweight
- Records: Darren Till (18-4-1 MMA, 6-4-1 UFC) | Dricus du Plessis (17-2 MMA, 3-0 UFC)
- Recent Performance: Darren Till (1-4) | Dricus du Plessis (5-0)
- Rankings: Darren Till โ #9 | Dricus du Plessis โ #13
- Boss Bet Odds: Darren Till โ $2.37 | Dricus du Plessis โ $1.59
Armchair Analysis
The English/Portuguese-speaking half of the Smesh Brothers, Darren Till, returns after hi year-long hiatus, looking to end his two-loss skid against the maestro that is Australiaโs Robert Whittaker and UFC veteran Derek Brunson.
In the other corner, you have a former K-1 kickboxing champion whoโs only tasted defeat twice across 19 fights in Dricus du Plessis. Given Till has been training closely with welterweight phenom Khamzat Chimaev, perhaps heโs sharpened his wrestling skills enough to exploit the default gap in du Plessisโ game.
As against-the-grain as it might sound, and because the Octagon is one of the last places where magic truly exists in this world, our betโs on Darren Till.
Bryce Mitchell vs Ilia Topuria (Odds & Prediction)
- Division: Featherweight
- Records: Bryce Mitchell (15-0 MMA, 6-0 UFC) | Ilia Topuria (12-0 MMA, 4-0 UFC)
- Recent Performance: Bryce Mitchell (5-0) | Ilia Topuria (5-0)
- Rankings: Bryce Mitchell โ #9 | Ilia Topuria โ #14
- Boss Bet Odds: Bryce Mitchell โ $2.23 | Ilia Topuria โ $1.66
Armchair Analysis
He might not be the sharpest instrument in the toolshed outside of hand-to-hand combat, but thereโs no two ways about it: Bryce Mitchell is a savant inside the cage (albeit a savant who eats more punches to the head than he should).
At UFC 282, heโll encounter what is arguably his biggest challenge yet in Ilia Topuria โ a fellow undefeated contender with a comparable submission arsenal and bona fide knockout power. And while the safe money is leaning towards the latter, we think itโs a far closer fight than the bookies believe.
Assuming he can weather the storm, our betโs on Bryce Mitchell.
UFC 282: Jan Blachowicz vs Magomed Ankalaev goes down this Sunday at the T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada (Main Card Local Time โ December 11th of 2022, 2 PM [AEDT]).
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