Two-Horse Race Emerges In Best Picture & Acting Categories As 2026 Oscars Voting Closes

• The Academy now requires voters to watch every nominee before casting ballots, creating a more informed and unpredictable awards race for the 2026 Oscars.
• Sinners and Michael B. Jordan surge ahead in Best Picture and Best Actor, while Timothée Chalamet’s campaign falters amid backlash and overexposure.
• Sean Penn leads Best Supporting Actor, but Delroy Lindo and Stellan Skarsgård remain strong contenders in a stacked category.

For decades, the moviegoers in the back row assumed that those with the enviable task of voting for the winners of the Academy Awards, the most prestigious gong in show business, had actually watched the work they were judging.

Call it a promise between those that subscribe to the prestige of the many awards shows that we’re treated to each year, and the more than 11,000 members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences that make up the voting class.

Watching the nominated films seemed like the bare minimum, almost like a reward for their own reputation within the industry, but this year, the illusion had been broken. Campaign chatter and the odd off-the-cuff comment to Amelia Dimoldenberg on the red carpet revealed that some ballots were cast after watching only a handful of contenders, simply relying on buzz to fill in the blanks.

It’s fair to say that the individuals in this position, comprising celebrated actors and directors, producers and craftspeople, are not all at fault, but this year, the Academy quietly did something radical. Members can now only vote in categories where they have confirmed they’ve watched every nominee, ensuring this year, everyone finally did the homework.

The result? An Oscars rumour mill sent into a timely frenzy.

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At the centre of the conversation sit two very different contenders: Sinners and One Battle After Another. One is the genre-bending vampire thriller, critically acclaimed and wildly original. The other is a Leonardo DiCaprio blockbuster with pedigree to burn.

On paper, One Battle After Another felt like a guarantee for this year’s Best Picture. I remember watching this for the first time in the cinema last September, convinced it had everything to take the top prize.

Even though the runtime for this one came in at 2 hours 42 minutes (I guess it’s a good thing voters are required to watch everything this year), the film’s dramatic, rhythmic pace kept millions on the edge of their seats. We all remember the feeling during that final sweeping chase scene with the cars emerging over the humps.

It was tense and reaching, coupled with the prestige filmmaking of director Paul Thomas Anderson, heavyweight performances from Hollywood’s biggest names, and early buzz throughout the award season, which combined into what looked like the safe bet for the Oscar.

But as voting closed this week, Sinners has since surged late in the race. It set the record for the most Oscar nominations in history, and as we’ve seen previously, momentum can snowball quickly.

Next up, Best Actor. And yes, we’re again talking about the same players. Leonardo DiCaprio, Michael B. Jordan, and Timothée Chalamet lead a generational showdown for one of the night’s leading gongs.

For much of the awards season, Leo led. His towering performance in the year’s most talked-about release was buoyed by decades of Academy goodwill, which ensured an early lead with voters. We were even treated to the first-ever TikTok edits alongside younger cast mates to get people through the theatre doors. Anything for the gong, eh, Leo?

Timothee Chalamet’s Oscar campaign was largely built on a mantra of artistic devotion and cinematic craft. And, honestly, it looked like the internet’s favourite son could do no wrong, with the Marty Supreme lead emerging as a bookies’ favourite and the darling of awards-season chatter.

That was until a viral clip of Timmy publicly criticising opera and ballet during an interview with Matthew McConaughey sparked a surprisingly intense backlash. It wasn’t a good look for any actor, let alone one that’s built his entire campaign on an intense reverence for the arts.

His Oscars season play took a hit, clearing valuable runway for Michael B. Jordan – nominated for playing twin brothers Smoke and Stack in Ryan Coogler’s Sinners – as the new front-runner as voting closes.

For a long time, Jordan felt like an outsider’s pick for his first Oscar, but after strong showings at the SAG Awards, the BAFTAs, and the Golden Globes earlier in the year, the Sinners star has been quietly gathering momentum in a stacked category. It could just be his year.

The supporting actor category also remains stacked with a number of worthy winners. Veteran powerhouse Delroy Lindo has earned widespread acclaim for his role in Sinners, while Sean Penn brought his signature menace to One Battle After Another. Stellan Skarsgård has also emerged as an outsider’s bet for his performance in Sentimental Value.

With both a BAFTA and a SAG Award already in the bag for Best Supporting Actor, Sean Penn remains the odds-on favourite to claim the Oscar as Steven J. Lockjaw. But this category always reflects the Academy’s inherent quirks.

And, whilst Penn’s runway remains relatively open, Lindo and Skarsgård cannot be dismissed (Lindo, in particular, gave a layered, veteran performance the Academy often rewards late in the season).

It would be very on-brand if we all got to see the Academy’s occasional appetite for surprise. And now that we can be certain the voters have turned up to watch the nominees this year, the Oscars (March 16, 2026, 10 AM AEDT) could be anyone’s to lose.