REVEALED: Every Country’s Statistical Probability Of Winning The 2022 FIFA World Cup
— 21 November 2022

REVEALED: Every Country’s Statistical Probability Of Winning The 2022 FIFA World Cup

— 21 November 2022
Garry Lu
Garry Lu

As Qatar towels the egg off its face after being spanked by Ecuador 0-2, becoming history’s first host nation to lose an opening FIFA World Cup game in the process, punters are understandably curious about their respective country’s odds of winning in 2022.

In the month leading up to this year’s somewhat controversial tournament – and a star-studded opening ceremony featuring both Morgan Freeman and Jung Kook of BTS fame – dozens of betting experts/companies decided to engage in a bit of quick mafs with their so-called “supercomputers.” But as you’ll see below, only two have cut the mustard vis-à-vis credibility in our eyes.

RELATED: The Outrageous $1.6 Billion Difference Between Australia & France’s World Cup Teams

Despite how both statistical models differ in process and hierarchy, where they find common ground is in the current frontrunner (Brazil) as well as the fact that Australia belongs somewhere in the bottom four. Although you didn’t need any numbers crunched or even percentage expressions to tell you that.

The prospect of facing the reigning champions in France right out of the gates alone – a team which has a staggering market value of $1.66 billion versus the Socceroos’ measly $59 million – is a dark omen if we’ve ever seen one. That being said, our boys don’t seem particularly phased.

(Photo by Matthias Hangst/Getty Images)

“We always dream of playing against these guys, watching the Champions League and watching the European leagues. You know, always wondering how it would be to come up against them and to have the opportunity now, I‘m just excited to see what will happen,” said defender Thomas Deng.

“It‘s going be a tough game playing the defending champions, but for us, as long as we focus on what we do best and we have full confidence in ourselves and we believe in our game plan, I think anything’s possible.”

Striker Mitch Duke added: “I‘m a true blue Aussie. I feel like the Aussie mentality is that not back down mentality. That we can beat anyone on our day and not to be scared. It doesn‘t matter who they are… at the end of the day, they‘re human. It’s 11 v 11.”

Check out the 2022 FIFA World Cup odds below.

2022 FIFA World Cup Odds: Every Country’s Chances Revealed (Oxford Model)

The model generated by Oxford University’s Joshua A. Bull considers factors such as squad strength, fixtures, world ranking, and usual expected goals.

Here are the 10 countries with the best shot at hoisting that gilded trophy in addition to the Seleção:

  1. Brazil – 14.72%
  2. Argentina – 14.36%
  3. Netherlands – 7.84%
  4. Spain – 7.03%
  5. France – 6.37%
  6. Belgium – 6.31%
  7. Portugal – 5.60%
  8. Denmark – 4.94%
  9. Germany – 3.84%
  10. Uruguay – 3.55%

… and the rest in this exact order: England, Croatia, Switzerland, Serbia, Ecuador, Mexico, Poland, Iran, USA, Wales, Japan, South Korea, Morocco, Costa Rice, Canada, Senegal, Tunisia, Qatar [note: this was published prior to this morning’s match], Australia, Saudi Arabia, Cameroon, Ghana.

2022 FIFA World Cup Odds Every Country's Chances Revealed
(Photo by Paolo Aguilar-Pool/Getty Images)

2022 FIFA World Cup Odds: Every Country’s Chances Revealed (Stats Insider Model)

Leveraging “cutting edge techniques” developed by their team of data analysts with oodles of experience modelling the world’s biggest club leagues (i.e. Premier League, La Liga, MLS) as well as a handful of international tournaments (i.e 2018 FIFA World Cup, Euro 2020, 2021 Copa América), Stat Insider has simulated the entire tournament over 10,000 times to determine the most likely outcomes.

Here’s where everyone stands as of November 21st of 2022:

  1. Brazil – 16.2%
  2. France – 10.7%
  3. England – 10.1%
  4. Argentina – 9.0%
  5. Spain – 8.3%
  6. Portugal – 7.6%
  7. Germany – 7.4%
  8. Netherlands – 6.6%
  9. Belgium – 6.6%
  10. Denmark – 3.6%
  11. Uruguay – 2.3%
  12. Croatia – 1.7%
  13. Switzerland – 1.5%
  14. Serbia – 1.1%
  15. United States – 1.0%
  16. Poland – 0.9%
  17. Ecuador – 0.9%
  18. Mexico – 0.9%
  19. Senegal – 0.7%
  20. Wales – 0.6%
  21. Morocco – 0.6^
  22. Canada – 0.4%
  23. South Korea – 0.4%
  24. Iran – 0.2%
  25. Japan – 0.2%
  26. Ghana – 0.2%
  27. Cameroon – 0.1%
  28. Tunisia – 0.1%
  29. Australia – 0.0%
  30. Costa Rice – 0.0%
  31. Saudi Arabia – 0.0%
  32. Qatar – N/A
(Photo by Joe Allison/Getty Images)

Looking to progress through the group stages for the first time since 2006, the Socceroos’ 2022 FIFA World Cup campaign kicks off next week on November 23rd at 6 AM [AEDT], when they face off against France at Al Janoub Stadium.

This will be followed by a match against Tunisia on November 26th at 9 PM [AEDT], then Denmark on December 1st at 2 AM [AEDT].

Catch every match live and free here in Australia on SBS + SBS On Demand.

Keen to take a punt on the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar? Get in on the action below.

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Garry Lu
After stretching his legs with companies such as The Motley Fool and the odd marketing agency, Garry joined Boss Hunting in 2019 as a fully-fledged Content Specialist. In 2021, he was promoted to News Editor. Garry proudly retains a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, black bruises from Muay Thai, as well as a black belt in all things pop culture. Drop him a line at [email protected]