The AFL Finals kicked off with one of the most gripping weekends of footy in recent memory, confirming exactly what we predicted – that the 2022 series would be one of the most entertaining in years.
Why? Because football has pivoted towards attack over defense again. The best teams are the most daring and the best to watch. Catch me if you can type stuff. It’s a welcome relief from the dour, defensively-minded, low-scoring matches of years gone by.
For a comprehensive AFL Finals series preview, read below. The favourites, the underdogs, the outsiders, the players to watch, and much more. Strap yourselves in for a month of pure entertainment, gut-wrenching lows, and exhilarating highs.
We’ve teamed up with BossBet who are running their ‘Can’t Lose Same Game Multi’ promotion for all AFL finals games, to give you the pre-finals low down, predictions, and the players to watch.
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The Frontrunners
Geelong and Melbourne are the clear two favourites for this year’s AFL premiership, probably in that order. Both teams have been there before, boast experienced and hardened finals players, and are primed to go all the way, with fit squads, and highly credentialed coaches.
The Cats are in serious form (have won their last 10) and finished first for a reason. The only question mark is, can their style of football stand up when it matters most? It didn’t in 2020 or 2021, prompting leading analyst David King to brand coach Chris Scott as ‘Home and Away’ Chris. In Scott’s defense, he’s got them to the finals in all but one season since he took over in 2011, but has just one flag to show for it. In what could be Joel Selwood’s last dance, Geelong is perfectly placed to triumph. Anything less would be considered another failure and missed opportunity.
The Demons had an incredible finals series in 2021 and are intent on repeating it this season, this time in front of their home fans at the MCG. According to them, that is their motivation. In truth, Melbourne has been patchy since midway through the year, but their demolition of Brisbane in Round 23 suggested they have re-found their mojo. They probably have the best midfield in the competition and the two best marking and rebounding defenders, whereas Geelong boasts the best forward line.
If things go to plan, Geelong and Melbourne won’t meet until the Grand Final on September 24. All signs point to that. They are the clear frontrunners.
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Worth A Look
Sydney (3rd) and Collingwood (4th) both know their best footy is good enough. They won the same number of games as Melbourne in 2022 and only finished lower due to slightly inferior percentages.
The Pies are the story of the year, rising from the foot of the ladder into the top four under new coach Craig McRae due to a succession of tight victories. One thing that is intangible is momentum, and Collingwood has a shitload of that right now having won nine of their last 10 games. There are very few Cinderella stories in sports and a flag may be a bridge too far in 2022.
Meanwhile, the Swans have won eight of their last 10 and have been super consistent for much of 2022. If they can win it – in what could be Buddy Franklin’s last season – it would be a phenomenal effort.
In reality, both these clubs are outsiders behind Melbourne and Geelong but deserve attention given their strong run into finals and X-factor forwards.
The Rest
Fremantle, Brisbane, Richmond, and the Western Bulldogs round out the eight. To be honest, none of them appear especially dangerous, even though they’d all say differently.
The Dockers, which won’t have Nat Fyfe due to injury for three weeks, will struggle to kick enough goals to win four on the bounce and beat the big dogs. Brisbane’s form is ordinary at best, Richmond can turn the switch but has been inconsistent all year, and the Dogs will be without injured midfielder Tom Liberatore and barely snuck into the eight at all.
All top four teams receive a double chance, but these clubs face sudden death matches this weekend. It’s going to be hard for the Tigers and Dogs to travel interstate and win. Surprisingly, Richmond has dropped retiring 302-game veteran Shane Edwards.
I wouldn’t be putting my money on any of these teams to upset the apple cart in 2022. There is a clear gap between the top four and the next rung of teams.
Players To Watch
Patrick Dangerfield – All eyes will be on the Geelong midfielder this finals series. He’s not quite the player he was, though he’s still extremely valuable due to his physicality and marking prowess. Dangerfield desperately wants a premiership to show for his decorated career. You can see it in the way he plays. This may be his last genuine chance.
Clayton Oliver – The Brownlow Medal favourite is a beast in Melbourne’s midfield. He relishes big occasions. If he and Christian Petracca are on fire, the Dees are almost impossible to stop.
Lance Franklin – Why do we watch Buddy? Because we aren’t sure whether we will see him again. A premiership in his ninth year at the Swans would cap off his lucrative contract nicely. Again, he’s not quite as dominant as he was, but his raking left boot is still elite.
Dustin Martin – He’s officially IN for Richmond’s game against Brisbane. The best finals player of all time (it’s not even an argument) has had an injury-riddled year, though in September the cream often rises to the top. He will play almost exclusively as a forward, rather than a midfielder.
Mason Cox – This may sound weird given the quality of the players above, but Cox can also turn it on. Remember the 2018 preliminary final when his heroics sunk Richmond? That’s right. Don’t discount him to bob up and kick three or more goals, presuming he finds his glasses which were stolen recently!
Format
The current top eight format has been unchanged for more than 20 years. The top four play against each other in week one. The two winners progress to the preliminary final and earn a week off, while the losers play the winners of the elimination finals.
It’s a good system and has stood the test of time. There is a clear advantage earning a double chance, as there should be. Only one team since its inception has won the flag from outside the top four, and that was the Dogs in 2016. It’s exceptionally hard to win four games in a row given the bruising nature of football, but six years ago Luke Beveridge’s men proved it wasn’t impossible.
Fixtures (& Prices as of Sept 1)
Thursday night: Brisbane (6th $2.18) v Richmond (7th $1.69) RESULT BRISBANE
Friday night: Melbourne (2nd $1.48) v Sydney (3rd $2.70) RESULT SYDNEY
Saturday twilight: Geelong (1st $1.38) v Collingwood (4th $3.10) RESULT GEELONG
Saturday night: Fremantle (5th $1.49) v Western Bulldogs (8th $2.67) RESULT FREMANTLE
Predictions
Premiers: Melbourne – because the best midfields rarely lose. ($3.30)
Best Outsider Bet: Collingwood – is riding the wave of momentum and will be hard to stop. ($10.00)
Player Of The Finals: Clayton Oliver – is an absolute jet. ($4.00 Brownlow Medal*)
Best Outsider Bet For Player Of The Finals: Nick Daicos – a superstar in the making, on his debut season.
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