A probability model formulated by the brains over at Goldman Sachs has predicted football is indeed coming home, pegging England as the strong favourite to win the Euro 2020 tournament. Drawing on data from approximately 6,000 matches played since 1980, the model in question takes a whole range of factors into account – from major tournament performances, recent form, to squad strength, and match location (calculated together to determine scoring ability).
Here’s the updated analysis by company man – Christian Schnittker – who recently published the following note aptly titled “It’s (Probably) Coming Home“:
“Italy’s 2-1 win against Belgium was a shock to our model, which so far had seen Belgium as the most likely team to take home the trophy. With Spain winning against Switzerland (1-1, 3-1 [P]), the first semi-final on Tuesday will see Spain face Italy, where our model predicts a narrow Spanish victory. With Belgium out of the competition now, our model sees England as the favourite to win the Euros after their 4-0 win against Ukraine.”
According to the Goldman Sachs probability model, England currently has a 57.7% chance of reaching the final and a 31.9% chance of going all the way to win the Euro 2020. Spain, on the other hand, was sitting on a 54.6% chance of making the final with a 24.6% chance of taking home championship glory; followed closely by Italy with 45% and 22.4% respectively (UPDATE 7/07/21: Italy has defeated Spain 4-2 in overtime as of this morning, once again bringing the Goldman Sachs Euro 2020 probability algorithm’s validity into question).
The model expects England to triumph over Denmark – the statistical underdog with a 42.3% chance to survive until the finals; 21.1% chance of winning – in a decisive 2-1 victory. Effectively, this would mean English goalkeeper Jordan Pickford will finally concede his first goal in this entire tournament.
Analysts have warned, however, that this isn’t exactly a sure thing (meaning you shouldn’t double mortgage the house for a multi). After all, the model failed to anticipate Belgium’s exit.
“While we capture the stochastic nature of the tournament carefully, we also see that the forecasts are highly uncertain, even with sophisticated statistical techniques, simply because football is quite an unpredictable game. This is, of course, precisely why football is so exciting to watch.”
It certainly isn’t within the global financial institution’s usual remit of money, or even the more tongue-in-cheek areas of expertise such as the 77 rules for being a man, and hierarchy of watches according to Wall Street… but if the math checks out, expect a
full-scale riot spirited bit of horseplay on the streets of London.