Welcome to Octagon Oracle. Each week, we’ll set aside some time to break down the other sweet science in anticipation of the upcoming UFC event. This edition covers UFC 281 predictions, betting odds, and just a dash of armchair analysis (main card). Enjoy the hostilities and gamble responsibly.
As far as UFC pay-per-view events go, this one is by far the most cinematic of 2022. And it’s due in great part to the headlining fight between reigning middleweight champion Israel Adesanya and #4 division contender Alex Pereira.
It wouldn’t be an exaggeration to characterise this as something ripped directly from a Hollywood screenplay. In Adesanya, you have a kickboxing specialist who’s successfully defended his belt on five separate occasions since winning the unified title from Australia’s Robert Whittaker at UFC 243 circa 2019.
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In Pereira, you have the only person who has ever defeated Adesanya twice throughout the latter’s entire professional career, knocking the New Zealander out cold with a savage left hook during their Glory of Heroes days in addition to securing a unanimous decision victory. Now, “Poatan” (meaning: “Hands of Stone”) is on the hunt for thirds.
“In Brazil, we have a saying: he who loses does not forget.”
While you’d assume the man who has defeated Adesanya before has the ability to repeat history and it’s all pretty much a done deal, MMA is rarely that simple.
Then you have the long-awaited return of former interim lightweight champion Dustin Poirier, whose blockbuster 2021 was sadly punctuated by a loss against peak-form Charles Oliveira. But don’t let that L distract you from the bigger picture — that being the entire run sheet of A-list names he’s encountered over the years, as well as the fact he’s walked away victorious from each one bar two occasions (the unparalleled Khabib Nurmagomedov in addition to Oliveira).
Granted, his opponent Michael Chandler ain’t exactly a slouch; you don’t become a three-time Bellator champion by accident, nor stumble through the entirety of a Bellator lightweight tournament. It’s simply due to the fact our minds have been made up at this stage. And you can actually profit from this opinion.
Back Dustin Poirier to win via KO/TKO or submission at $2.50 with BossBet here.
Here are our predictions for UFC 281: Israel Adesanya vs Alex Pereira.
UFC 281 Predictions (Main Card)
Israel Adesanya vs Alex Pereira
- Division: Middleweight
- Records: Israel Adesanya (23-1 MMA, 12-1 UFC) | Alex Pereira (6-1 MMA, 3-0 UFC)
- Recent Performance: Israel Adesanya – (4-1) | Alex Pereira (5-0)
- Rankings: Israel Adesanya – Champion | Alex Pereira – #4
- Boss Bet Odds: Israel Adesanya – $1.55 | Alex Pereira – $2.48
Armchair Analysis
Despite what you may think about his recent bouts, and his tendency to avoid danger during bouts, there are no two ways about it: Israel Adesanya is bloody dominant. Otherwise someone would have surely figured him out by now and taken care of business.
So what makes UFC 281 any different from the last few fights? Aside from having tasted defeat at the hands of Alex Pereira twice, this is the first time The Last Stylebender has encountered another elite-level kickboxer in the arena of mixed martial arts.
Of course, before we all climb aboard the Poatan hype train, there are a few caveats:
- This is MMA, not pure kickboxing
- Izzy possesses considerably more MMA experience, and we’ve yet to witness Pereira face any true adversity…
- … or really grapple excluding that loss via rear-naked choke during his MMA debut, whereas Adesanya has been steadily upping his ground game
- Izzy could always play keep-away, although this is less likely given Pereira’s stand-up arsenal
For the sake of keeping things interesting – and because the Octagon is one of the last places on Earth where magic can still happen – our bet’s on Alex Pereira.
Carla Esparza vs Zhang Weili
- Division: Strawweight
- Records: Carla Esparza (19-6 MMA, 10-4 UFC) | Zhang Weili (22-3 MMA, 6-2 UFC)
- Recent Performance: Carla Esparza (5-0) | Zhang Weili (3-2)
- Rankings: Carla Esparza – Champion | Zhang Weili – #2
- Boss Bet Odds: Carla Esparza – $3.90 | Zhang Weili – $1.26
Armchair Analysis
Like many, we’re of the belief Carla Esparza’s second run as UFC strawweight champion comes with a massive asterisk: she eeked a split decision victory over Rose Namajunas who, for some inexplicable reason, refused to fight(?)
Compare that to the former division champ, Zhang Weili, who has been pitted against the creme de la creme over the past three years, beating Joanna Jędrzejczyk in spectacular fashion (twice), and only losing to Namajunas (also twice) – the second time around with Namajunas, incidentally another split decision, was rather questionable due to Thug Rose’s ineffective control time.
Our bet’s on Zhang Weili to reclaim the strap.
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Dustin Poirier vs Michael Chandler
- Division: Lightweight
- Records: Dustin Poirier (28-7-1 MMA, 20-6-1 UFC) | Michael Chandler (23-7 MMA, 2-2 UFC)
- Recent Performance: Dustin Poirier (3-2) | Michael Chandlert (3-2)
- Rankings: Dustin Poirier – #2 | Michael Chandler – #5
- Boss Bet Odds: Dustin Poirier – $1.49 | Michael Chandler – $2.67
Armchair Analysis
On the basis of resumes alone, there’s no way you don’t give this to Dustin Poirier.
The Diamond from Louisiana has had zero, and we really mean zero, easy fights since 2017. Anthony Pettis. Justin Gaethje. Eddie Alvarez (x2), Max Holloway. Khabib Nurmagomedov. Dan Hooker. Conor McGregor (x2). And Charles Oliveria.
The only times he’s lost across this epic half-decade run? To the undefeated world-beater Khabib and a prime champion-era Oliveira. Apart from that, it’s been highlight after highlight, hence why he’s #11 in the UFC pound-for-pound rankings despite never earning a unified title. Side note: it’s a proper wig-out to be reminded he’s accomplished all this at the age of 33.
As incredible as Michael Chandler is as a combat athlete – and as much as we’re expecting fireworks from both corners – our bet’s on the former interim UFC lightweight champ, Dustin Poirier.
Back Dustin Poirier to win via KO/TKO or submission at $2.25 below.
Frankie Edgar vs Chris Gutiérrez
- Division: Bantamweight
- Records: Frankie Edgar (24-10-1 MMA, 18-9-1 UFC) | Chris Gutiérrez (18-4-2 MMA, 6-1-1 UFC)
- Recent Performance: Frankie Edgar – (1-4) | Chris Gutiérrez (4-0-1)
- Rankings: Frankie Edgar – #12 | Chris Gutiérrez – Unranked
- Boss Bet Odds: Frankie Edgar – $2.76 | Chris Gutiérrez – $1.46
Armchair Analysis
Frankie Edgar is someone who should’ve retired four, maybe five, fights ago a la Tony Ferguson. Long gone are the days of the former UFC lightweight champion’s prime, and he’s been paying for it severely.
From the vicious TKO loss against the Korean Zombie, highlight-worthy KO loss against Cory Sandhagen – which occurred just 28 seconds into Round 1 – to Edgar’s most recent defeat, a devastating front kick from Marlon Vera that properly shut the lights off… it was getting hard to watch.
Thankfully, Gutiérrez will mark Edgar’s final bout before he officially enters retirement. Still, an American hero deserves better than this.
Our bet’s on Chris Gutiérrez. Anyone telling you otherwise is trying to sell you something.
Dan Hooker vs Claudio Puelles
- Division: Featherweight
- Records: Dan Hooker (21-12 MMA, 11-8 UFC) | Claudio Puelles (12-2 MMA, 5-1 UFC)
- Recent Performance: Dan Hooker (1-4) | Claudio Puelles (5-0)
- Rankings: Dan Hooker – #12 | Claudio Puelles – Unranked
- Boss Bet Odds: Dan Hooker – $1.59 | Claudio Puelles – $2.37
Armchair Analysis
Examining recent career stats, one would assume this is a lock for Claudio Puelles. But that would be to severely underestimate Dan Hooker, whose past four losses have either been to:
- a near undefeated rising star (Arnold Allen)
- heavy-hitting Top 5 contenders (Dustin Poirier and Michael Chandler)
- or the current UFC lightweight champion (Islam Makhachev)
… the latter of whom he stepped in to face as a last-minute replacement for Rafael Dos Anjos.
Don’t get us wrong. Hooker will certainly have his hands full with Puelles, who boasts a solid submission grappling game, and a particularly nasty kneebar; just ask Clay Guida, Chris Gruetzemacher, Felipe Silva, and Edimar Martins Rayol. But The Hangman is healthy, hungry, and out for blood.
Our bet’s on Dan Hooker.
UFC 281: Israel Adesanya vs Alex Pereira is scheduled to go down this Sunday at Madison Square Garden in New York City (Main Card Local Time – November 13th of 2022, 12 PM [AEDT]).
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