UPDATE [1/12/2022]: They’ve only gone and done it. Thanks to a 60th-minute goal from Matthew Leckie, the Socceroos have triumphed over Denmark in a stunning 1-0 victory. Yes, you read that correctly. Australia has qualified for the Round of 16 at this year’s FIFA World Cup (Qatar) – for the first time since 2006 and the second occasion in history.
“As the ball was rolling in, I saw it going in, I was so excited and so happy,” Leckie said after the match.
“By the celebration you see how much emotion there was… I’m just so proud. We’ve worked so hard. This is my third World Cup now and I’ve had my chances in previous World Cups to score, wasn’t meant to be.”
“My first World Cup [goal] is probably one of the most important goals for me and for the team.”
Meanwhile, in yet another major upset for the 2022 tournament, Tunisia has beaten reigning champions France with a final score of 1-0. Despite this impressive effort, however, given Tunisia sits on the bottom half of the Group D table, they’ve been eliminated along with Denmark.
Group D Standings
- France (6 points)
- Australia (6 points)
- Tunisia (4 points)
- Denmark (1 point)
Original Article – How Australia Can Reach The Round Of 16 (Three Key Pathways)
After the 1-0 victory against Tunisia secured by a sensational header from Mitch Duke, Australia has a real chance of reaching the Round of 16 at this year’s FIFA World Cup (Qatar); which would effectively mark the first time the Socceroos have escaped the group stage since 2006.
But before we get swept up in the hype of recording the country’s third-ever FIFA World Cup win, let’s bring it back down to Earth and talk game plan: what actually needs to happen for the Graham Arnold-led Green & Gold to book a one-way ticket to the knockout stage.
RELATED: Every Country’s Statistical Probability Of Winning The 2022 FIFA World Cup
2022 FIFA World Cup: How Australia Reaches The Round Of 16
If the Socceroos beat Denmark…
Australia (6 points) will progress to the next round with two wins and a single loss to France. France would have a minimum of six points, and that’s in the highly unlikely scenario they fumble by losing to Tunisia.
If the Socceroos draw with Denmark…
The fate of Australia (4 points) will hinge upon the rest of Group D.
Round of 16 is guaranteed with any of the following results:
- France beats Tunisia – France (9 points), Denmark (2 points), Tunisia (1 point)
- France draws with Tunisia – France (7 points), Denmark (2 points), Tunisia (2 points)
What can’t happen?
Aside from the obvious (losing to Denmark), if the Socceroos draw with Denmark – placing them at four and two points, respectively – while Tunisia somehow manages to beat France in yet another massive upset for the 2022 tournament – placing them at four and six points, respectively – Australia would be eliminated.
The Odds of Going The Distance
In the month leading up to the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar, dozens of betting experts/companies decided to engage in a bitta quick mafs with their so-called “supercomputers.” But only two have cut the mustard vis-à-vis credibility in our eyes.
Oxford Model
The model generated by Oxford University’s Joshua A. Bull considers factors such as squad strength, fixtures, world ranking, and usual expected goals. Here are the 10 countries with the best shot at hoisting that gilded trophy:
- Brazil – 14.72%
- Argentina – 14.36%
- Netherlands – 7.84%
- Spain – 7.03%
- France – 6.37%
- Belgium – 6.31%
- Portugal – 5.60%
- Denmark – 4.94%
- Germany – 3.84%
- Uruguay – 3.55%
Stats Insider Model
Leveraging “cutting edge techniques” developed by their team of data analysts with oodles of experience modelling the world’s biggest club leagues (i.e. Premier League, La Liga, MLS) as well as a handful of international tournaments (i.e 2018 FIFA World Cup, Euro 2020, 2021 Copa América), Stat Insider has simulated the entire tournament over 10,000 times to determine the most likely outcomes. Here’s where everyone stands as of November 29th of 2022:
- Brazil – 20.8%
- France – 13.2%
- England – 10.6%
- Portugal – 9.9%
- Spain – 9.8%
- Netherlands – 7.7%
- Argentina – 7.0%
- Germany – 5.2%
- Belgium – 2.5%
- Denmark – 2.3%
- Croatia – 2.2%
- Morocco – 1.4%
- Switzerland – 1.4%
- Uruguay – 1.3%
- Poland – 1.0%
- United States – 0.9%
- Ecuador – 0.9%
- Serbia – 0.6%
- Senegal – 0.5%
- Mexico – 0.3%
- Iran – 0.2%
- Japan – 0.2%
- Ghana – 0.2%
- Costa Rice – 0.1%
- South Korea – 0.0%
- Tunisia – 0.0%
- Cameroon – 0.0%
- Australia – 0.0%
- Wales – 0.0%
- Saudi Arabia – 0.0%
Qatar – N/ACanada – N/A
Australia faces off against Denmark on December 1st at 2 AM [AEDT]. Catch every match live and free here in Australia on SBS + SBS On Demand.
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