It’s been a hot minute since Formula 1 has witnessed a title fight as close as the ongoing battle between Mercedes’ seven-time grid king, Sir Lewis Hamilton, and Red Bull’s young gun, Max Verstappen. At this stage, the question of who will win the F1 championship might be too close to call, but the road to victory for the latter is clear as day.
Considering the current driver standings, as well as the fact only two races remain in the 2021 calendar, we can simply refer to mathematics. The incumbent that is Hamilton has recorded 343.5 points. The challenger that is Verstappen leads with 351.5. The highest amount of points you can earn in a race is 25 with a bonus point awarded for the fastest lap. Meaning Verstappen needs to distance himself by 26 points during the penultimate event to ensure he’s mathematically impossible to beat thereafter. If the season ends in a points tie, it’ll fall to whoever won the most races, which still spells victory for the Dutch motorsports talent (nine races so far against Hamilton’s seven; if Hamilton wins nine races as well he will have already won via points).
For the young bull to lock up his maiden championship, here’s what needs to happen at the Saudi Arabia Grand Prix:
- Max Verstappen wins the race & scores the point for fastest lap, Lewis Hamilton finishes P6 or lower
- Max Verstappen wins the race but does not score the point for fastest lap, Lewis Hamilton finishes P7 or lower
- Max Verstappen finishes in either P1 or P2 regardless of fastest lap, Lewis Hamilton finishes outside P10
- Or as predicted by a hilarious meme circulating the internet, in an effort to preserve his father’s legacy, Mick Schumacher kamakazis into Lewis Hamilton as he’s being lapped, effectively guaranteeing there will be no eighth title
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ESPN has rightly indicated that while any other combination of results will mean the title fight will be decided during the final race at Abu Dhabi’s Yas Marina Circuit, no combination of results secures Hamilton’s 2021 season victory for good this weekend. Although a betting man would certainly like their chances with Mercedes. The return of the “rocket engine” aside, Hamilton shines brightest when the odds are stacked against him.
Of course, sans that last possibility involving Mick Schumacher, this is all assuming everyone participates in a civilised race. While Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton have promised to “keep it clean” for the remainder of this year, Mercedes Team Principal Toto Wolff has publicly voiced other ideas.
“It if was to come to the scenario of the last race in Abu Dhabi and they were to be racing each other for the title, whoever is in front [on points] is absolutely going to try to do the same as in the Senna-Prost years,” Toto Wolff explains during a recent interview with Martin Samuel.
“What happened in Monza? Verstappen took Lewis out because he was about to overtake and he was quicker. And that is totally understandable. If you are racing for the championship and you see it fading away because the other guy is overtaking you, what tool have you got other than the one that makes sure he can’t overtake? We’ve seen it with Schumacher and Villeneuve, we saw it with Senna and Prost twice.”
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“I would never give the instruction to crash into anyone else but if they go to that last race and whoever is in front wins the championship, they will be racing each other – hard.”
As previously noted, strategic – albeit unsportsmanlike – manoeuvres such as the one outlined above has quite the rich history within Formula 1. And when it all comes down to the wire in elite levels of competition, there are no friends among the pack of wolves.
“I don’t think you can control it – Hamilton and Verstappen – I don’t think you want to control it because they are the gladiators in their machines. That is what makes this sport so interesting. Because it is ingrained in our nature that we don’t like confrontation and then one is intrigued to see how that relationship unfolds.”
Only time will tell who will win the F1 championship in 2021. Either way, it’ll make for bloody enjoyable viewing.
